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When will Amazon be able to really challenge SpaceX’s Starlink service?

Amazon's Project Kuiper Satellite payload.
ULA

On Tuesday — the day after Amazon launched its first batch of operational internet satellites — the company posted on X: “Congratulations to the Project Kuiper team on a milestone launch this week, successfully deploying and activating 27 broadband satellites in space. This is an important first step in the mission to bring fast and reliable internet to customers all over the world.”

On the very same day, SpaceX’s internet satellite company posted a message highlighting how Starlink is now enabling 10,000 students around the world to learn in connected environments for the first time, with 78% of the students using a computer for the first time. “Test scores are improving, and more students than ever before are getting into university,” it added.

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As Amazon begins to build out its constellation, expect both companies to increasingly highlight how their internet satellites are helping to connect unserved and underserved communities, while also connecting customers — both individuals and businesses — to the internet.

Amazon is aiming to compete with Starlink, but it has some serious catching up to do. SpaceX’s company started deploying its satellites in 2019 and it now has more than 7,000 of them in orbit. Earlier this week, it completed its 250th dedicated Starlink mission. The Elon Musk-led company also has more than 5 million subscribers globally, adding more than 3 million in 2024 alone.

This week’s Project Kuiper launch was the first of more than 80 planned launches that will allow Amazon to build a constellation of more than 3,200 satellites. 

Amazon has designed an aggressive launch campaign, with seven more satellite deployments planned for ULA’s Atlas V rocket, at least 38 on ULA’s Vulcan Centaur vehicle, and dozens more with Arianespace, Blue Origin, and possibly even SpaceX. SpaceX uses only the Falcon 9 rocket for its own Starlink launches, but it has so many operational Falcon 9 boosters available that it can send them up on a regular basis. 

So, when will Amazon begin to compete with SpaceX at some level? Well, Amazon has stated that if everything goes to plan, it should be able to start delivering high-speed, low-latency satellite internet connectivity to customers by the end of this year. It actually only needs to deploy around 1,000 Kuiper satellites for global coverage, but adding more to the constellation will improve network performance and reliability for a viable service. 

Starlink’s established infrastructure and customer base has clearly given it a significant head start, and industry experts note that it will be difficult for Amazon to have much impact on SpaceX’s lead in the near term.

With that in mind, it’s likely to take until at least mid-2026 for Amazon’s Project Kuiper to reach a scale where it can more directly challenge Starlink’s global coverage and market presence. 

At that point, pricing and quality of the services will come into play, with both companies fighting it out to attract new customers and retain existing ones. 

And it’s also worth noting that while Starlink and Project Kuiper are the most prominent and well-funded endeavors just now, the internet satellite sector is becoming increasingly competitive as other companies around the world launch, or continue to build out, similar services.

Trevor Mogg
Contributing Editor
Not so many moons ago, Trevor moved from one tea-loving island nation that drives on the left (Britain) to another (Japan)…
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